OK
http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/
Websites
Runtime: 2s
On January 18, 2025, 06:49 AM UTC, http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/ was accessible when tested on AS4760 in Hong Kong.
Failures
HTTP Experiment
null
DNS Experiment
null
Control
null
DNS Queries
Resolver:
172.253.5.24
Query:
IN A francis-lui.blogspot.com
Engine:
system
Name
Class
TTL
Type
DATA
@
IN
A
142.250.197.129
Query:
IN AAAA francis-lui.blogspot.com
Engine:
system
Name
Class
TTL
Type
DATA
@
IN
AAAA
2404:6800:4005:822::2001
TCP Connections
Connection to 142.250.197.129:80 succeeded.
Connection to 2404:6800:4005:822::2001:80 succeeded.
HTTP Requests
URL
GET http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/
Response Headers
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用經濟學做眼睛
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>1/17/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/01/blog-post_17.html'>港連年巨額財赤 重見盈餘該怎辦 (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">今年財政預算案最受市民關注重點之一，是究竟財政赤字有多大，或財政儲備甚麼時候被用光。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">引起此種關注的原因應是傳聞中的赤字很大。較早前政府對</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年度赤字的估計是</span>1,438<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元，但若減去政府發債的「收入」</span>958<span lang="ZH-TW">億元，赤字便只是</span>480<span lang="ZH-TW">億元，後者似乎也是較多人記得住的數字。不過，後來又有傳聞，赤字不是</span>400<span lang="ZH-TW">多億，而是</span>1,000<span lang="ZH-TW">億，再加上原來政府還額外借了</span>958<span lang="ZH-TW">億，並把這當作收入，真正的赤字是接近</span>2,000<span lang="ZH-TW">億元，這便不能不使人擔心香港政府的財政是否不太穩定。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">財政儲備</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"> 6<span lang="ZH-TW">年內蒸發</span>4910<span lang="ZH-TW">億</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">審慎理財對香港十分重要，尤其是在今天充滿挑戰的環境下更是如此。我們須先搞清楚實際的財政狀況究竟是否壞透還是仍有實力，我們也不用否定今天的財政能力有所退步，並應找出變得糟糕的原因。當然，香港應如何用錢也是重要的問題，篇幅有限，將來另外為文討論之。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">財赤與儲備多少，都是每天都在變的數字，而且口徑不同，我們宜從不同的角度觀察之。過去幾年，黑暴及新冠都對香港的公共財政構成破壞，</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2018<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月黑暴之前，特區政府的財政儲備是</span>10,944<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元，</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月，卻跌至</span>6,034<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元，</span>6<span lang="ZH-TW">年內足足蒸發掉</span>4,910<span lang="ZH-TW">億元，等於平均每名港人少了</span>6.5<span lang="ZH-TW">萬元儲備。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">但這便足以反映財赤帶來的損耗嗎？上文提過，政府過去多年有發行債券，借回來的錢被當作收入。技術上此種做法在會計上有其理由，借回來的錢可歸入債券基金，用以支付基建等非經常性開支，還錢及利息可當作政府開支的一部分從基金中撥出。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">不過，從經濟意義上，我們倒是應該把借回來將來要還的錢當作是暫時填補赤字的工具，而不是政府收入的一部分。我們若把每年政府的總收入減去總開支，自可得出盈餘或赤字，按此計算，從</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2019<span lang="ZH-TW">年第二季到</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年第三季這</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">年半內，特區政府共錄得財赤</span>7,726<span lang="ZH-TW">億元。此數字與上述</span>4,910<span lang="ZH-TW">億元的差別，我估計是因政府債券填補了部分儲備所致。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">儲備減少了這麼多，是否香港公共財政上已到窮途末路，危機四伏呢？倒未至於斯。特區政府除了財政儲備外，尚控有兩筆巨款，一是歷年政府外滙投資回報積累起來的基金權益，</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月共</span>7,531<span lang="ZH-TW">億，比財政儲備更多，且財爺完全有權動用；二是政府基金及法定組織存款，共</span>3,800<span lang="ZH-TW">億。這些都尚未包括政府不應動用，用以支持聯繫滙率的外滙儲備，亦即等同</span>19,500<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元的貨幣基礎。香港公共財政目前仍算十分健康，香港有財力發展經濟。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">人口老化生育率低 財政添壓</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">話雖如此，財政赤字幅度這麼大，儲備耗得這麼快，肯定應響起警鐘，我們需找出造成財赤的幾個決定性因素。其實早在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2013<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>2015<span lang="ZH-TW">期間，特區政府成立的「長遠財政計劃工作小組」（我也是成員）早已預測會有今天這局面。當時政府每年仍頗有盈餘，但卻注意到香港人口老化十分嚴重，老年人長壽得很，在世界位居前列，但總和生育率卻低企，女性一生平均只生育一名小孩，所以香港社會極度缺乏年輕人接班，工作人口又要扶養大量老人。沒有這麼多工作人口讓政府抽稅，政府在醫療、福利、房屋、交通等項目上要照顧的老人一直有增無減，尤其是在非常勤勞的嬰兒潮世代（</span>1946<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>1965<span lang="ZH-TW">年出生）相繼退休後，政府的財政壓力更是劇增。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">「工作小組」當時推算過，若聽任財政開支如當年缺乏足夠節制般增長，到了</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2021<span lang="ZH-TW">年便會出現財赤，</span>2028<span lang="ZH-TW">年期間便會用盡財政儲備。「小組」報告出來後，政府也有落實一些節約措施，但這些都被後來的黑暴風波及新冠疫情打得花果飄零，財赤也提早</span>2020<span lang="ZH-TW">年出現，若今天不重新貫徹審慎理財，</span>2028<span lang="ZH-TW">年左右，誰敢保證財政儲備不會歸零？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">大力推創科 衍生新質生產力</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">這絕非危言聳聽。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年，港人年齡的中位數已達</span>48.9<span lang="ZH-TW">歲，相對每</span>100<span lang="ZH-TW">名</span>15<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>64<span lang="ZH-TW">歲的港人，便有</span>35<span lang="ZH-TW">名</span>65<span lang="ZH-TW">歲或以上的長者，到了</span>2046<span lang="ZH-TW">年，還會增至</span>56<span lang="ZH-TW">名。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">要減少財赤，重見盈餘，搞好經濟當然是必然要的途徑。人口老化，勞動力減少對經濟有負面影響，但香港雖有人移民到英國等地，香港人口卻仍在上升，勞動人口尚算穩定，這應是有新移民來港的影響，這些人當中，頗有高端人才。不過，香港經濟復甦緩慢，現時實質</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">還稍低於</span>2018<span lang="ZH-TW">年，工商界投資意慾不高。我相信要走出此景況，需要有創新科技來衍生出新質生產力。沒有生產力的進步，投資者不易找到新的可賺錢的投資機會，因此也不願投資。政府大力推動創新科技是對的，方法是否正確，尚待觀察。若這方面做好，公共財政可能會再出現盈餘。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">香港经济日报 </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2025-1-17)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>1/10/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/01/blog-post_10.html'>特朗普威脅吞併別國領土 意欲何為？(雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）未上任已在大放厥詞，既說要「收回」巴拿馬運河，又要丹麥把格陵蘭賣給美國，更過分的是把主權大國加拿大稱作美國的第</span>51<span lang="ZH-TW">個州。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">對此等侮辱性言論，其總理杜魯多（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Justin Trudeau<span lang="ZH-TW">）竟不敢置一詞。杜魯多對美國的指令一直以來都忠實執行，現在要下台了，不但得不到一絲美國的安慰，素來不喜歡他的特朗普還要踩上一腳。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普在擴充領土方面如此密集發出恫嚇言論，究竟意欲何為？在國際關係上，以堂堂候任美國總統之尊，在丹麥已表明格陵蘭是「非賣品」後，仍叫別人放棄領土，因為這個大島美國有用，若不放棄，便要對丹麥大加關稅，這是何等的霸權無賴！</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">對巴拿馬，美國在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1989<span lang="ZH-TW">年已有不顧聯合國的反對，派兵入侵並抓捕其總統的先例，難保不會故技重施。至於加拿大，美國一樣在揮舞關稅大棒，估計還會有後着。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">巴拿馬懷璧其罪 擁全球重要水道</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普是否只是在吹吹水，過點口癮，不能太認真？我相信以美國的霸權本性，特朗普對這些地方都是垂涎三尺的。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">究竟這</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">個地方對美國有何價值，值得她不顧形象悍然展開巧取豪奪的架勢？巴拿馬運河的價值是顯而易見的，特朗普埋怨巴拿馬對過境的美國船隻徵收的費用太高，加上巴拿馬政府在</span>2021<span lang="ZH-TW">年又再與「長江和記實業集團」續了</span>25<span lang="ZH-TW">年的約，容許它管理運河進出兩端的港口，美國的政客大感不滿，干脆亂指長和是中國共產黨，這個指控，港人難免要掩嘴失笑。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">不過，欲加之罪何患無詞，巴拿馬只得</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">400<span lang="ZH-TW">多萬人口，</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">幾乎只及香港四分之一，如此弱國，卻擁有全球最重要水道之一，懷璧其罪，巴拿馬未必能頂得住壓力。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">格陵蘭資源豐 美欲奪北極圈航道</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">格陵蘭面積巨大，等於整個美國的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">22%<span lang="ZH-TW">，但人口卻只得</span>5.6<span lang="ZH-TW">萬多人，其位處極北苦寒之地，經濟難以發展起來並不奇怪。不過，此島天然資源豐富，有鈾及稀土，後者又有中國幫其開採。長期而言，它的最重要價值也許是它位處北極圈地帶，在地球暖化後，北極圈航道漸可通行，格陵蘭的地位便會舉足輕重。美國最想奪得的，應便是北極圈航道的控制權。以強凌弱，不擇手段，仍是美國在國際關係上的本色。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">加拿大複雜一些。美國</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">是加拿大的</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>13<span lang="ZH-TW">倍，人口是她的</span>8.81<span lang="ZH-TW">倍，兩國強弱懸殊。加拿大</span>75%<span lang="ZH-TW">出口的目的地是美國，入口的</span>56%<span lang="ZH-TW">則來自美國，對美國出口的量等於加拿大</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>25%<span lang="ZH-TW">，對美的貿易盈餘</span>1,410<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元，等於</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>6.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">。由此可知，加拿大對美倚靠甚深，美國威脅向加拿大徵收</span>25%<span lang="ZH-TW">的關稅，加拿大不易應付。加拿大歷任政府倒應為此負上責任，過去</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">年，杜魯多對美國總統忠誠如犬，或許以為美國總會念着舊情，不會對加拿大開刀，所以沒有在國際貿易上多元化。經此一役，若加拿大仍相信美國不會對她怎麼樣，便只能自歎其愚了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">倡加國成第</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">51<span lang="ZH-TW">州 助減慢美衰落</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國對加拿大的興趣可能也是最大。若是吞併了加拿大，美國的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">立時便多了</span>8%<span lang="ZH-TW">左右，人口多了</span>11.4%<span lang="ZH-TW">，這些增加雖不算很大，但總算可為不斷衰落的美國沖喜一下。美國要計算的，便是值不值得為這</span>8%<span lang="ZH-TW">左右的</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">，去應付吞併一個這麼大的國家後，所帶來的十分複雜的後遺症。特朗普最感興趣的，恐怕也是加拿大在北極圈中的大量領土，光是在北冰洋加拿大擁有主權的島嶼，便有</span>36,563<span lang="ZH-TW">個，地球繼續暖化後，這條新的航道極具戰略意義。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普聲稱很多加拿大人，都愛死把加拿大納入美國的第</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">51<span lang="ZH-TW">個州，此種自我吹噓，若是十分真實，他便不用補上一段：「若加入了美國，便不用交關稅了，而且稅率會降低很多，又不再怕中俄對加拿大的安全威脅了。」其實中俄哪有威脅過加拿大，最嚴重的威脅正是來自美國，把你吞併掉，若不答應便加關稅，這還不是威脅？！</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國在這</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">個地方的直接博弈對手是國力懸殊的巴拿馬，毫無戰鬥力的丹麥及加拿大。對加拿大而言，選擇美國還有</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">入息</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">稅率可減的吸引力。美國稅率不低，但加拿大更高，也許不少加拿大人會覺得可以考慮。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國在這些國家面前，或可予取予攜，從而減慢其衰落之勢。但今天的中國用購買力平價計算，</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">已是美國的</span>1.3<span lang="ZH-TW">倍，美國就算多了個加拿大，經濟實力上依然不可避免地追不上中國。況且合併會帶來諸多內外困擾，拖着美國發展，反而使到中國有更多時間去發展科技與經濟。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">（香港经济日报 </span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">2025-1-10<span lang="ZH-CN">）</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>1/03/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/01/blog-post.html'>緊跟美國如搭「賊船」 沒有好下場 (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">過去幾十年，國與國之間貿易額大幅上升，國際分工也顯得更明顯，沒有一個國家可以生產所有商品，很多都要倚靠外國。此種互相倚賴，本可締造更穩定的和平，你要靠別人供貨及買你的產品，怎會有誘因攻打你的貿易夥伴？</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">但世事卻往往被愚蠢及貪婪弄得面目全非，美國因為相信不少國家都要倚賴她，遂把此當成武器，誰不聽她，她便發動貿易戰逼別國就範，但她似乎不明白，自己也要倚賴別國，她們一樣也可發動反擊。自由貿易，全球經濟一體化，在此勢態下變得岌岌可危，大爭的世界逐漸顯露，合作則減少。但這裏有一奇怪的現象，在大爭的世界中，愈是站隊美國，愈是為美國辦事的，便愈是倒楣，其國家領導人的民望愈可能低處未算低，若未下台的，恐怕也撑不了多久。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普諷 加國可成美第</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">51<span lang="ZH-TW">個州</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">此種現象例子很多，加拿大是美國鄰居，一向與美關係良好，自總理杜魯多（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Justin Trudeau<span lang="ZH-TW">）上台後，更不敢違抗美國的旨意。遠有華為孟晚舟事件，她沒有違反加拿大法律，只是路過，也被抓捕軟禁；近有美國候任總統特朗普（</span>Donald
Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）兩次聲稱可把加拿大變成美國的第</span>51<span lang="ZH-TW">個州，杜魯多可成州長，看來不是失言，如此侮辱性的言論，杜魯多竟甘之如飴，活像一名被訓示的學童，真有辱國體。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">但這並不等於美國對加拿大及杜魯多都會因此而大加愛護，特朗普只給加拿大兩個選擇：要麼接受施於加拿大的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">25%<span lang="ZH-TW">關稅；要麼便矮化為美國的一個州。杜魯多站在美國一邊反華不遺餘力，喪權辱國，經濟也停頓，</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">月支持率只得</span>29%<span lang="ZH-TW">，反對率</span>68%<span lang="ZH-TW">，下次大選，不敗幾稀矣，但美國對加拿大經濟落井下石有之，卻無任何挽救加拿大經濟或杜魯多的措施。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國在歐洲也有不少盟友，理論上整個北約都是，而其中實力最強的是德國，但她一樣受到美國嚴重的拖累。美國一向反對德國向俄羅斯買天然氣，所以曾要脅制裁俄德之間的天然氣管道「北溪</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">號」，現時的總理朔爾茨（</span>Olaf Scholz<span lang="ZH-TW">）在</span>2019<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">月，他任副總理時也腰板挺硬，批評美國的做法。但美國主導的北約挑動起俄烏戰爭後，不但把北約其他成員都拖下水，經濟消耗沒完沒了，「北溪</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">號」還神秘地被炸掉，德國等倚賴俄羅斯天然氣的國家不得不轉向昂貴得多的美國購買，至於是誰炸掉主權國家德國的輸氣管，大家心知肚明，但朔爾茨卻只能噤若寒蟬。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">此君的民望在上任之初本來不錯，</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>1<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>4<span lang="ZH-TW">日的調查，支持率高達</span>65%<span lang="ZH-TW">，當年</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">月更升至</span>73%<span lang="ZH-TW">，但</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月已跌至</span>37%<span lang="ZH-TW">。民望下跌的因素不少，但經濟不景分量極重，</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年德國的</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">一般預期會下跌</span>0.1%<span lang="ZH-TW">，若無美國的拖累，本來是歐洲經濟火車頭的德國哪會致此？朔爾茨總理之位保不住，已無懸念。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">《廣場協議》 日本經濟失落</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">30<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">若論緊跟美國跟得最貼的大國，非日本莫屬。但美國有眷顧過日本的經濟嗎？</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">80<span lang="ZH-TW">年代日本經濟如日中天，高新創意產品不斷出現，經濟實力大有蓋過美國之勢，引起了美國的警戒。日本被迫簽了《廣場協議》，再加上在芯片研發領先世界的東芝等巨企被美國制裁，日本不但經濟衰足</span>30<span lang="ZH-TW">多年，連過去的創新能力也似突然一去無蹤。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">來到今天，日本更無實力在美國面前挺起腰骨，美國過去三年的高利率政策，逼得日圓大幅貶值，貶了多少？近三分一！日本擺脫了通縮，遊客也增多，但日本人民卻苦通脹之重臨。在政治上完全配合美國遏華政策的岸田文雄內閣，在岸田離任前夕，公眾支持率竟跌至</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">15.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">下場最悲慘的，很可能是南韓的總統尹錫悅。此君一反上任總統文在寅力求在中美之間保持平衡的國策，不但完全親美，更與南韓人民有世仇的日本愈走愈近，但同樣要黯然下台。從前南韓被視作四小龍期間，經濟平均年增長率高達</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">6.4%<span lang="ZH-TW">，其央行卻預測明年增長只有</span>1%<span lang="ZH-TW">。經濟停滯及生活成本高漲，使人民開始叫苦連天，</span>7<span lang="ZH-TW">成南韓人對此感到十分焦慮。</span>8<span lang="ZH-TW">個南韓有優勢的領域中，</span>7<span lang="ZH-TW">個已被中國超越，例如本來領先全球的南韓造船業，不但去年已被中國超越，且排名大有被中國拋離之勢。尹錫悅在</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月下旬的支持率已跌至</span>19%<span lang="ZH-TW">，</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>14<span lang="ZH-TW">日被彈劾，現時法院還批准對他的拘捕令，他是否要在獄中度過餘生？不知道。美國會否救他？恐怕不會。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">尹錫悅親美 釀內亂黯然下台</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">親美的國家或政客是否便都會碰上厄運？以上及大量其他例子，如英國、菲律賓等，似乎顯示此事的概率不低，這背後應當有些規律性的理由。美國愈來愈只顧自己利益，再加上美國自己正在衰落，緊跟美國的好比上了一艘極度自私的人當船長的「賊船」，後果堪虞。特朗普上台後，「美國優先」更是已宣之於口，親美國的前景不會變好。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2025-1-3)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>12/27/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/12/blog-post_27.html'>澳門這中央的掌上明珠 (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">上周三至五（</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">18<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>20<span lang="ZH-TW">日），澳門回歸</span>25<span lang="ZH-TW">周年紀念，國家主席習近平赴澳視察兼主持新特首宣誓儀式，並在</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>19<span lang="ZH-TW">日到我現時工作地點澳門科技大學參觀訪問。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">我適逢其會，近距離的觀察習近平主席的訪問。校方把此事視作歷史性的大事，自然作好一切準備。有大批學生夾道歡迎及夾道相送，及在圖書館外大堂聽習主席演說，事前都有綵排，以防意外。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">習主席早上</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">10<span lang="ZH-TW">時半在大堂出現並演說，學生</span>6<span lang="ZH-TW">時便已集合等候。不要以為要他們這麼早起來，他們便會感到苦不堪言。我現場所見，他們興奮激動之情溢於言表，裝不出來的，等候期間還唱了不少歌曲打氣，青春便如此動人！</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">在隔了兩天的分享會中，可清楚感受到不少在場師生把這次訪問視作他們一生中彌足珍貴的精神財富，校方也肯定把它看成是校史中的里程碑及大學的成就。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">澳人口不到</span></b><b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">70<span lang="ZH-TW">萬 財儲卻超港</span></span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">年前哈佛大學曾在中國進行過長時間的民意調查，發現人民對政府的擁護度高達</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">90%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上，冠絕全球，這與西方政客與媒體所希望給予別人的印象，大異其趣。從這次觀察看來，哈佛的調查更符合實際。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">習近平在演說中把澳門形容為中央的「掌上明珠」，在香港頗引起羡慕及對香港自身的恨鐵不成鋼。記憶所及，其實中央也曾把香港形容為「掌上明珠」，港人毋須失落。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">澳門以彈丸之地能得此稱號，實有其了不起的成就支撑着。一個丁點大的地方，人口不到</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">70<span lang="ZH-TW">萬，</span>2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年人均</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">竟達</span>52.87<span lang="ZH-TW">萬港元，比同期香港的</span>39.56<span lang="ZH-TW">萬港元高出</span>33.6%<span lang="ZH-TW">。在金光大道與澳科大交界的圓形地天橋放眼遠眺澳門的璀璨，你不會懷疑此地的旅遊博彩業早已將拉斯維加斯遠遠拋在後面。過去幾年，澳門雖被新冠重創而且年年派錢，但政府財政卻依然年年保持盈餘，今年</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">月財政儲備高達</span>6,170<span lang="ZH-TW">億澳門元，香港縱然人口是澳門的</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">倍，財政儲備卻跌破了</span>6,000<span lang="ZH-TW">億，而且這還未有扣掉香港政府的欠債！其他亮麗的數字也甚多，例如澳門的人均壽命超過</span>85<span lang="ZH-TW">歲，在世界中僅次於另一賭城摩納哥的</span>89<span lang="ZH-TW">歲。高等院校學生也從</span>1999<span lang="ZH-TW">年的</span>8,909<span lang="ZH-TW">名學生擴充至</span>2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年的</span>55,611<span lang="ZH-TW">人，基本上已做到誰想讀大學都可入學的目標。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">澳成果斐然 一國兩制鮮活例子</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">習近平及中央厚愛澳門，除了澳門真有實力以外，也許還另有一重要原因。香港與澳門都實施「一國兩制」，香港問題比較複雜，港人幾年前已領教過，在境外勢力明的暗的干擾下，不設防的香港可以被搞得一團糟，反觀澳門，外部勢力影響不大，反而是一個較為純淨的「一國兩制」實驗室，而且實驗成果斐然，以後有人批評「一國兩制」時，中央倒可亮出澳門這鮮活例子，平息眾議，這怎叫中央不對澳門讚譽有嘉？</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">你若以為習近平只看到澳門的成績，看不到她面對的挑戰，那便大錯特錯。我主理的澳科大「發展經濟學研究所」事前與清華大學的「中國經濟思想與實踐研究院」合作，檢視了澳門的發展經驗及政策研究，已完成報告的上半部，所以我對習主席的用語十分敏感。他期盼澳門經濟要「適度多元化」，這正是關鍵所在，此詞包含「適度」及「多元化」兩部分，都是精準的要求。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">適度多元化 拓「高精尖」科技</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">眾所周知，澳門得天獨厚，是全中國唯一一處可容許博彩業的地方。有此優惠政策，澳門可把本來流到國外的賭款截回澳門，經濟可保繁榮。但若只靠博彩業及與其同步變動的旅遊娛樂業，她的經濟會因外部環境的變動而大幅波動，所以必須用經濟多元化來化解之。但多元化卻不能過火，放棄博彩業自然不智，而且澳門人口較少，絕不可能同時搞出多個不同而又發達的經濟板塊，所以選擇發展甚麼，便要十分講究，不能盲目。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">習主席到澳科大視察，是他第一次訪問港澳的大專院校校園，澳科大得此殊榮，估計是因為她有兩個國家實驗室，研究中草藥及太空科技，去年發射的澳科大人造衛星一號，更</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">曾</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">得到習主席來信嘉許，我的同事張可可教授團隊，立了大功。此例亦讓習主席得到根據，澳門的多元化，不用排除「高精尖」的領域。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">不謀萬世者，不足謀一时，我們在成績面前更應尋找短板。就我的觀察及與同事的交流，澳門人有點過分舒服，她的人均</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">高於香港，但在職人員月薪中位數是</span>19,417<span lang="ZH-TW">港元，比香港的月薪中位數</span>21,900<span lang="ZH-TW">元差了</span>12.8<span lang="ZH-TW">個百分點，但這可靠每年一次派錢及各種十分慷慨的福利補償。在幾乎與世無爭和平環境中，普通人民很難培養出一種隨時願意奮身戰鬥的戰狼性格，有此鬥心之人或許更一早去了香港或內地拼搏。留在澳門的，過着平凡日子賺取比香港低的薪水及領取福利便可。當然不是所有澳門人都如此，但若此種心態变得普遍，便不会有利於她闖出新天地，打造出新質生產力，及將其經濟多元化。不過，也許</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">不少</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">港人也有此「毛病」。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">報 </span><span style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">2024-12-27)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>12/20/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/12/blog-post_20.html'>美國還有多少司法獨立？ (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">很多曾長期在美國居住的朋友都有感歎，今天的美國與從前的，不像是同一個國家。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">從前美國標榜自由、民主、法治，並以己為燈塔，照亮全人類。在社會倫理中，往往把「愛」突出，為主要的價值觀，越戰時期，要求和平的口號更是深入民心。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">但今天的美國發動的戰爭之多，早已使她穩穩地成為人類歷史上最好戰的國家，沒有之一，哪還能不臉紅的說自己是和平使者？加沙的種族滅絕，教宗受不了，美國的政客卻毫不動容，哪裏還有「愛」的影子？近日十分矚目的，卻是一連串使人「耳目一新」的特赦，把法治的外衣也脫掉了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">拜登無大選顧慮 即特赦兒子</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國總統拜登（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Joe Biden<span lang="ZH-TW">）特赦自己的兒子亨特（</span>Hunter Biden<span lang="ZH-TW">），過程頗為講究。在總統大選前，拜登多次表明不會赦免已被法庭審判定罪、自己也認罪的兒子，原因恐怕是害怕影響選情。但民主黨輸掉後，再沒有這顧慮，拜登便立時變臉。他特赦的範圍包含甚廣，是無條件及全面的特赦，從</span>2014<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>1<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>1<span lang="ZH-TW">日至</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>1<span lang="ZH-TW">日這</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">年中，無論他幹過甚麼事，一律都無罪，以後也不能追究。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國總統確有被其憲法賦予的特權可以赦免任何人，但赦免自己的親人在政治上很不好看。中國也有「天子犯法，與庶民同罪」的說法，所以拜登總也要擺擺樣子，以挽回自己的名譽。他用的藉口是兒子是受到政治迫害，若非他是拜登的兒子，他根本不會被整。這只有兩種可能性：第一，亨特只是個政治犯，他原本無辜，只是美國法庭不公正，判他入獄而已；第二，法庭十分公正，但拜登利用權勢否定法庭。這兩種可能都大損美國的名譽，他接着一天內對近</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1,500<span lang="ZH-TW">人減刑及赦免了</span>39<span lang="ZH-TW">人，應是沖淡一下他特赦自己親人的惡評。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">若說只有拜登胡搞也是不對。古有克林頓（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Bill Clinton<span lang="ZH-TW">），今有特朗普（</span>Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">），更惡劣的也可做得出。克林頓在總統任期最後一天，特赦了</span>140<span lang="ZH-TW">人及替幾人減刑，其中包括在芝加哥及紐約市放炸彈被判囚</span>35<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>105<span lang="ZH-TW">年的重犯。但最為使人側目的，是因逃稅</span>4,500<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元，跑到瑞士的富豪里奇（</span>Marc Rich<span lang="ZH-TW">）。此君的前妻有捐款給克林頓與希拉莉（</span>Hillary
Clinton<span lang="ZH-TW">），外界若把此解讀為行賄便可免罪，克林頓亦不易辯駁。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美總統濫用特赦權 早有先例</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">要說濫用特赦權，特朗普不會屈居人後。他上次在任時，特赦過</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">237<span lang="ZH-TW">人，人數上遠比不上奧巴馬（</span>Barack Obama<span lang="ZH-TW">）共赦免過的</span>1,927<span lang="ZH-TW">人，但特朗普很有針對性，他的盟友多罪犯，例如他的策略師班農（</span>Steve Bannon<span lang="ZH-TW">），曾對聯邦調查局（</span>FBI<span lang="ZH-TW">）說謊的前國家安全顧問弗林（</span>Michael Flynn<span lang="ZH-TW">），犯了法也可高枕無憂。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普本人也是被法庭判了罪的犯人，他會否特赦自己？這個難說。他當總統期間不用服刑，別人奈何不了他。但除非他修改憲法，容許他再任一期，否則他</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2029<span lang="ZH-TW">年便要退任。他保護自己的方法有兩個選項，一是擴張勢力，確保下任總統是自己朋友，不會找他麻煩。但這途徑不大靠得住，更可靠的還是全面地徹底地赦免自己一切罪狀。但這等若接受了自己是帶罪之身這一事實，所以赦免的藉口也要講究。他早已聲明，在他接任總統之位後，兩秒鐘之內便會炒掉司法部負責他案件的官員（炒不掉的，別人早已先行一步，把特朗普炒了），又會找人把司法部的官員連根拔起，能不用赦免自己也可解除威脅的話，他不一定這麼快行上這一步。
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特處理國會山莊暴徒 惹關注</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普另一項引人關注的行動，是關於</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2021<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>1<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>6<span lang="ZH-TW">日衝擊美國國會山莊的暴徒。這批傢伙共已有多於</span>1,146<span lang="ZH-TW">人被檢控，有些在排期審判，也有人逃跑了，已被定罪的有</span>600<span lang="ZH-TW">多人，但不是人人坐牢。罪名較重被認為是幕後黑手的，判得很重，遠超衝入立法會破壞嚴重得多的香港暴徒，例如極右團體「驕傲男孩」的塔利奧（</span>Enrique
Tarrio<span lang="ZH-TW">）被判</span>22<span lang="ZH-TW">年，「誓言看守者」的羅德斯（</span>Stewart
Rhodes<span lang="ZH-TW">）判</span>18<span lang="ZH-TW">年。相對於香港對暴徒的從輕發落，美國的暴徒能不悲憤？不過，他們也不用介懷，特朗普未上任前已聲明，會優先特赦這批犯人。美國真的還有司法獨立嗎？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">這批暴徒的背景成分很使人好奇，芝加哥大學政治教授丕比（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Robert Pape<span lang="ZH-TW">）有項大型研究，把被捕者當中的</span>700<span lang="ZH-TW">多人都摸清了底細，他發現這幫人與美國主流社會的成分，根本分別不大，從年齡、種族、性別、是否有自己公司、是否藍領還是白領、是否失業或已退休、有無上過大學、有無軍事背景、犯罪紀錄等等，其比例與美國一般選民無異，但與極端組織成員頗為不同。這反映當年暴行的帶頭人或許是極端分子，但盲從者卻是普通人。此點與香港的黑暴可能十分相似。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-12-20)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>12/13/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/12/blog-post_13.html'>「狂人」上場勢打壓 香港怎應對？（雷鼎鳴）</a>
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<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">特朗普（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）重新當選美國總統後，香港政圈一個熱門話題便是美國會如何對付香港及香港如何回應。我素來重視底綫思維，要在最糟糕的情況下仍能站得穩，才可有力化解危機。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">特朗普此人癲三倒四，不好預測，雖說他經過</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">8<span lang="ZH-TW">年政圈生涯的鍛練後，心智應比以前成熟，手段也會圓融一點，但看他委任的內閣，不乏紅衞兵般只懂喊</span>MAGA<span lang="ZH-TW">（</span>Make America Great Again<span lang="ZH-TW">，即讓美國再次偉大）口號之輩，我們還是小心一點好。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">公開的平台並非討論攻守戰略的合適地方，但也可以起到一個正面作用，便是把事實擺出來，減少誤判，從而使到雙方都可避免幹出損人害己之事。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">港貨輸美數額低 美制裁影響微</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">香港經濟最重要的兩個板塊是國際商貿活動與金融服務業，美國的某些政客要打壓香港也會重點考慮這兩方面，但其實他們能做到的並不多。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">先說商貿。香港早已不是一個重要的製造業城市，貿易數額雖是</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">（本地生產總值）的幾倍，但基本上都是轉口貿易。香港本土商品有多少出口到美國？過去政府每年都有公布這數字，但近年便沒有了，最後公布的是</span>2016<span lang="ZH-TW">年，那年本土產品出口到美國的，共</span>36.5<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元。今天香港本土製造業與</span>8<span lang="ZH-TW">年前比較並無多少進步，恐怕出口到美國的也就只是幾十億港元而已，相比香港</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億港元的</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">，微不足道，美國制裁也不會有甚麼效果。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以上說的是商品貿易，港美貿易還有服務業的進出口，規模大得多。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年，香港服務業向美輸出</span>1,416<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元，從美輸入</span>740<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元，順差</span>676<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元。這些服務是甚麼？主要是海運及空運服務、金融服務及商業服務。美國政府若要打壓，也許會有老鼠拉龜、無從入手之歎，況且不少提供這些服務的，都是包括美國公司在內的跨國公司，打擊它們不是棒打自己人嗎？美國在這領域幹不了大動作。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">保衞港金融 須足夠外滙撑聯滙</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在金融業上最值得關注的惟有聯繫滙率，此制度十分符合美國的利益，香港歷年來用有價值的商品或服務換回美國印鈔機印出本身並無內在價值的美元，美國政府睡着也會偷笑，若一旦打擊聯繫滙率，世界對持有美元資產便會更有戒心。但如果美國政客把中國的和平崛起視為對自己霸權的生死存亡威脅，而打擊香港又是破壞中國金融的有力措施，誰能保證那些頭腦發熱的美國政客不會不惜工本的胡搞？</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">要保衞香港的金融業，便必須維持世人對香港金融業的信心，不能容許聯滙制在攻擊中被動地倒下來，這要有幾方面的考慮。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">聯滙制要有足夠的外滙資產支撑，否則大家都拿着港元來兌換美元時，香港拿不出美元便會大事不妙，出現擠提。按最新的數據，今年</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">9<span lang="ZH-TW">月香港共有</span>3.87<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億港元的外滙資產。聯滙制承諾會擔保的是香港貨幣基礎的總值，今年</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">月，共</span>1.95<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億港元，比起</span>4<span lang="ZH-TW">年前同期下降了</span>1,614<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元，反映在此期間資金流走了同等數額，但這情況已穩定下來，今年比去年同期，資金已回流進來約</span>700<span lang="ZH-TW">億。</span>3.87<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億的外滙資產中的</span>1.95<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億是不能動用的，餘下的</span>1.92<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億也不是隨便可消耗掉，否則一樣可引發信心危機。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這筆並不是用作擔保聯滙制的儲備主要構成是特區政府的財政儲備與基金權益。前者在新冠出現前的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2019<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">月，共</span>1.096<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億，今年</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">月只剩下</span>0.523<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億，消失了近半。近日政府放風，今年財赤會高達千億，遠超原本政府預期的</span>400<span lang="ZH-TW">多億，這不能不使人擔心政府已失去審慎理財的能力。基金權益那部分情況好一點，它是歷年來外滙投資所賺回來的利潤結餘，財政司司長有法定權力決定如何使用這筆錢。今年</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">月，它的總額是</span>0.783<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億元，比</span>2019<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">月稍增了</span>123<span lang="ZH-TW">億港元。現時理論上財政司司長可管控的財政儲備加上基金權益共</span>1.307<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億，依然是天文數字，世界上沒有私營炒家夠實力沽空得動Resolver
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